Cheap Convexity

Jonathan Turek
Global Macro
Created 03 May 2020
  • The Disconnect Between EMFX and Hawkish Central Banks
    23 Nov 2021 • < 1 min read • 2 0
    One of the more interesting things in FX right now is the disconnect between fairly hawkish central banks, rising front end yields and FX. This of course has become heightened recently as we have seen...
  • Is Short JPY the Next Big FX Trade?
    16 Nov 2021 • < 1 min read • 4 0
    One of the more interesting themes in FX markets right now is the Japanese Yen. Looking at FX over the past few months, it could be said that the reaction to what has gone in front end yields has had ...
  • Stocks say Bonds are Wrong
    09 Nov 2021 • < 1 min read • 6 1
    One of the things that is so interesting is this contrast not only between the equity market and rates, but also between the internals of the equity market and rates. Of course, we know that stocks ar...
  • Fed Preview: Hawkish Optionality is not Incompatible with FAIT
    02 Nov 2021 • < 1 min read • 2 0
    While this is obviously not a dots meeting, this will be a fairly important FOMC meeting as it takes place in the backdrop of some fairly seismic moves in front end yields across the world. Read more
  • Why Don't Equities Care?
    29 Oct 2021 • < 1 min read • 5 3
    One of the more interesting themes in the market right now is the ability for the market to look through potential risks. The market has just not cared about the front end of the yield curve. Over the...
  • How Stable is China's Current FX Policy?
    26 Oct 2021 • < 1 min read • 3 1
    One of the more important global economic and market dynamics of this year is that USDCNH hasn’t flinched at pretty much any China related weakness. Whether it has been the tech crackdown, the real es...
  • Can FAIT avoid the BoE’s fait?
    19 Oct 2021 • < 1 min read • 4 0
    The story this week is obviously about BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments in the Financial Times over the weekend. Rising energy prices mean inflation “will last longer and it will of course get in...
  • Central Banks are Nervous, Which is Hawkish
    11 Oct 2021 • < 1 min read • 3 0
    What we have learned over the last six weeks is that central banks are nervous. The Fed raised dots across the forecast horizon, the BoE pulled forward the first hike, Norges in Norway hiked and commi...
  • The Tricky Duality for Risk Assets, Growth vs. Implieds
    05 Oct 2021 • < 1 min read • 5 0
    The backdrop for risk assets has clearly changed over the past few weeks. One of the more striking dualities that seems to be weighing on markets is the nexus between growth downgrades and more hawkis...
  • Whatever Coalition is Formed in Germany, Europe is Healing
    27 Sep 2021 • < 1 min read • 2 0
    The big event of the weekend was of course the German elections. In terms of the market, the stakes were obvious, the better the more left leaning parties did, the more likely it will be that Germany ...
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