Forecasting

Nuño Sempere
A forecasting newsletter, with a focus on experimental human judgemental forecasting
Created 02 Nov 2020
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  • Forecasting Newsletter: September 2021.
    01 Oct 2021 • 7 min read • 2 1
    Highlights Facebook's Forecast folds Hedgehog Markets now operational Polygon and Augur announce a $1M liquidity rewards program Index Prediction Markets & Forecasting Platforms Blog Posts Long Conten...
  • Forecasting Newsletter: August 2021
    01 Sep 2021 • 9 min read • 2 0
    Highlights Despite forecaster consensus to the contrary, Kabul has fallen CSET-Foretell attempts to make inroads into US decision-making mechanisms The US’ CDC to launch a new outbreak analysis and fo...
  • Forecasting Postmortem: The Fall of Kabul
    01 Sep 2021 1 6
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  • Forecasting Newsletter: July 2021
    01 Aug 2021 • 10 min read • 1 1
    Highlights Biatob is a new site to embed betting odds into one’s writing Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market, launches in the US Malta in trouble over betting and gambling fraud Index Predictio...
  • Forecasting Newsletter: June 2021
    01 Jul 2021 • 17 min read • 2 1
    Highlights Some Superforecasters start a substack, as does Dominic Cummings Alex Lawsen and I published Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms on the arxiv. What if Military AI is a Was...
  • Forecasting Newsletter: May 2021
    01 Jun 2021 • 13 min read • 1 0
    Highlights Misha Yagudin creates a webpage to get one’s calibration chart for Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell Hypermind experiments with new methods of eliciting, incentivizing and scoring long-r...
  • Forecasting Newsletter: April 2021
    01 May 2021 • 12 min read • 2 1
    Highlights Polymarket is being attacked by “sandwiching” bots Metaculus launches “Forecasting Causes” In Reflective Bayesianism, Abram Demski outlines questionable and implicit assumptions which Bayes...
  • Forecasting Newsletter: March 2021
    01 Apr 2021 • 11 min read • 1 0
    Highlights OpenPhilanthropy releases a report on outside view perspectives on the likelihood of AGI. Jason Matheny, previous director of IARPA, CSET, is now a ¿senior? official in the Biden administra...
  • Forecasting Newsletter: February 2021
    01 Mar 2021 • 8 min read • 3 1
    Highlights Biden orders the creation of a National Center for Epidemic Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics Americans get a clone of Betfair/Smarkets, expected to be marginally better than PredictIt Hyp...
  • Forecasting Newsletter: January 2021
    01 Feb 2021 • 8 min read • 4 0
    Highlights 1. Veteran PredictIt trader writes a pretty good guide on how to make money on prediction markets. 2. Metaculus and Hypermind both have new COVID-19 forecasting tournaments. 3. I created a ...
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