Neal Zupancic
Analysis, forecasts, and opinions about issues of social importance
Created 08 Aug 2021
  • Did I Have Covid?
    27 Nov 2021 • 11 min read • 1 8
    I haven’t written in some time. Earlier this month I got sick, and I think it was covid, although, as I’ll explain, I can’t be sure one way or the other. This experience has made me think a lot about ...
  • Covid Geography and Wave Height
    24 Oct 2021 • 6 min read
    Last week I wrote very pessimistically that I expected we’d have emergency interventions here in Georgia and that the fifth wave would therefore peak this weekend. In fact, we had no extra interventio...
  • The Fifth Wave
    17 Oct 2021 • 14 min read • 1 0
    A few weeks ago I wrote down some thoughts about the fifth coronavirus wave here in the country of Georgia. I didn’t get around to posting them because some events overtook me - I started teaching onl...
  • Dave Chappelle and the Cancellation that Wasn't
    15 Oct 2021 • 22 min read • 4 0
    I’ve been a fan of Dave Chappelle’s comedy since The Chappelle Show. That said, I don’t think I’ve watched many of his comedy specials. Maybe two or three? Usually I just see clips when surfing YouTub...
  • The Secret to Communicating with Kids
    07 Oct 2021 • 16 min read • 0 1
    I’m just going to start with what might be the most controversial opinion I’ve ever written down: communicating with kids is dead easy. Easier than communicating with adults, even. When adults have tr...
  • Elections, Covid, and Synthetic Control Models: Contra CRRC
    26 Sep 2021 • 12 min read
    The Caucasus Research Resource Center (CRRC) in Georgia has published a policy bulletin (.pdf) by Dustin Gilbreath and Givi Silagadze (henceforth G&S) which attributes up to 140,000 cases and up to 14...
  • Life in Five Languages
    19 Sep 2021 • 13 min read • 2 0
    Russian It happened because I forgot to put the name of my allergy medicine into the nominative case. “Niksar, otsi miligrami,” I said. Nixar, 20 milligrams. The pharmacist stared at me blankly. I sta...
  • Missing Data
    12 Sep 2021 • 10 min read • 1 0
    Covid data are never perfect. Georgia at least has a nationwide reporting system - unlike the US, which has a patchwork of state reporting resulting in maps like this one, from the New York Times: Not...
  • Does Travel Broaden the Mind?
    01 Sep 2021 • 12 min read • 5 0
    I have to admit to a certain contrarian streak, so when I saw this John Cleese tweet blaming nationalism on lack of travel, something in me awoke: John Cleese @JohnCleese They say 'Travel broadens the...
  • Covid Scenarios in Georgia
    29 Aug 2021 • 14 min read • 1 1
    The Exponential Decay Model Here are three simple, baseline scenarios for how a theoretical version of Georgia’s pandemic might go. Projection of weekly case counts based on three different weekly gro...
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