The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)
Financial education, macro insights & actionable investment ideas. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.
Created 03 Jun 2021
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  • Has Your Portfolio Realized That The Money Printer is Out of Order?
    04 Apr 2022 123 36
    ‘‘There are no gurus. There are only cycles.’’ Michael Gayed The money printer is out of order in 2022. Actually, we are even looking at BRRRR in reverse: the flow of credit reaching the private secto...
  • China: To Invest or Not To Invest?
    30 Mar 2022 188 40
    ‘‘I said that we needed to shift the focus to improving the quality and returns of economic growth, to promoting sustained and healthy economic development, and to pursuing genuine rather than inflate...
  • Yes, But Which Yield Curve?
    21 Mar 2022 202 75
    ‘‘My early blackjack career taught me several things. The first is that if you apply yourself with a lot of hard work and mathematical prowess you can beat the system.’’ Bill Gross Understanding the b...
  • The Fed is Hitting The Brakes: Are You Wearing your Seatbelt?
    17 Mar 2022 241 66
    ‘‘We are attentive to the risks of potential further upward pressure on inflation and inflation expectations. The Committee is determined to take the measures necessary to restore price stability. The...
  • The Bears are Knocking at The Door
    07 Mar 2022 233 63
    ‘‘When people begin anticipating inflation, it doesn’t do you any good anymore.’’ Paul Volcker We are at important global macro crossroads: Central Banks are trying to remove accommodation from market...
  • A Healthy Long for Your Portfolio
    24 Feb 2022 144 10
    Hey everybody, welcome back to The Macro Compass! ‘‘Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that price is what you pay but value is what you get. Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying qual...
  • House (Prices) of Cards?
    21 Feb 2022 146 70
    ‘‘Buy land, they’re not making it anymore.” Mark Twain The real estate market is likely to experience a short-term slowdown in 2022 amidst its intact long-term bullish trend. While its dynamics seem t...
  • The Real Deal in the Bond Market
    14 Feb 2022 229 65
    ‘‘When you combine ignorance and leverage, you get some pretty interesting results’’ Warren Buffett Real interest rates were in a secular declining trend centuries before the Federal Reserve or other ...
  • The Bond Market in Plain English
    07 Feb 2022 246 52
    ‘‘As a rule, any loan that had been turned into an acronym or abbreviation could more clearly be called a subprime loan, but the bond market didn't want to be clear.’’ Michael Lewis in The Big Short. ...
  • The Yield Curve Inversion is Coming
    31 Jan 2022 236 71
    Clinton’s political adviser Carville once said: ‘‘I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope. But now I would like to come back as the bond mar...
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