Don't Worry About the Vase

Zvi Mowshowitz
A world made of gears. Currently mostly Covid-19 updates and Ukraine War analysis, but also rationality, strategy games and game design, and more.
Created 18 Nov 2021
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  • Covid 4/7/22: Opening Day
    07 Apr 2022 • 0 2
    Baseball is back, and only a week late. As a fan with an infant, even though my Mets are somehow already without our top two starting pitchers, I am thrilled. Things are not fully open without opening...
  • Ukraine Post #9: Again
    05 Apr 2022 • 6 13
    This is once again a ‘sources and information on everything happening’ post. In the last few days after Russia’s retreat from the Kyiv area, focus has shifted from military and other issues to the atr...
  • Ukraine Post #8: Risk of Nuclear War
    04 Apr 2022 • 13 14
    It seems worth going through the exercise of estimating the probability of nuclear war, and in particular the probability of it causing one’s death. If the probability gets high enough, one can strong...
  • Covid 3/31/22: More of the Same
    31 Mar 2022 • 4 8
    BA.2 became the majority strain in the United States this week, as expected. Mostly things are continuing as expected, with unsurprising news on a variety of fronts. The biggest surprise is that the s...
  • They Don't Know About Second Booster
    31 Mar 2022 • 12 9
    The FDA went ahead and did it, approving a fourth vaccine shot for those age 50 or older. This is a reference post for those wondering if it makes sense to get that second booster. The FDA approved th...
  • Ukraine Post #7: Prediction Market Update
    28 Mar 2022 • 9 4
    It has been about two weeks since I last looked at the prediction markets for the invasion of Ukraine. Since then, prices on many markets have shifted quite a lot, so it is once again time to examine ...
  • Ukraine #6: More Data and Peace Terms
    25 Mar 2022 • 10 24
    I was mostly happy with the Covid-style approach I tried out last time. This is an update of ‘all the things worth noting since then’ but excluding prediction markets. I plan to do a prediction market...
  • Covid 3/24: Respite
    24 Mar 2022 • 8 10
    All is quiet on the Covid front. Let us hope is stays that way. Especially since we have no funding for anything. Executive Summary BA.2 on the rise, leading to some local rises in cases as in NY. Fed...
  • Ukraine #5: Bits of Information
    21 Mar 2022 • 15 51
    Rather than attempt a synthesis this time around, I’m going to experiment with the opposite. Over the course of the last three weeks, I kept adding to a long list of sources and interesting things the...
  • Covid 3/17/22: The Rise of BA.2
    17 Mar 2022 • 7 11
    Omicron has made its way through every major country except one - China. Its time seems to have come. As I noted on Monday, China had already locked down 60 million people amid rapidly rising case cou...
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